The NFL season is less than a week away, and that means Week 1 of fantasy football is nearly upon us.
However, Week 1 is the most unpredictable part of the NFL season, with fans having no knowledge of how teams will operate, how certain players will be used or how new coaching staffs will change the play-calling. What if we start someone who gets absolutely zero usage? What if all the reports from training camp lied to us and that sleeper running back you drafted way too early winds up being his team's RB4?
Well, fret not. Week 1 often comes down to security. You want to start players who have the least amount of risk attached to them. Of course, that's not always possible. Some teams are thinner than others and require a little more foresight. So, here is a player at every position to either start or sit during the first week of the 2024-25 NFL season.
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Players to start in Week 1
QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let's be honest. You're only starting Mayfield if you're desperate at QB or in a very deep league. He's not a top-12 quarterback and Week 1 is all about starting your guys. If you are in a position where you need a quarterback though, Mayfield could be a great choice.
The Washington Commanders were the worst pass defense in the NFL last year, surrendering the most passing yards of any team in the league and the most passing touchdowns, all while hauling in only eight interceptions. The absence of former offensive coordinator Dave Canales will certainly hurt the Bucs' offense in the long run, but for Week 1 Mayfield and the Bucs should feast on a lackluster Commanders defense.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
As great as the Bills' defense has been in recent years, they weren't a very efficient run defense last season. They allowed 4.6 yards per carry, the sixth-worst mark in the league. As for Conner himself, he was great at the end of last season, tallying over 20 PPR fantasy point in four of his last five games. The one game he didn't, he still scored 17.9. Sure, the Cardinals drafted Trey Benson this year, but Benson won't become a serious threat to Conner's workload until late in the season at the earliest.
WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Every reason I gave for Baker Mayfield as a start option this week also applies to Godwin, but Godwin has a little more upside. Prior to 2023, Godwin was emerging as the Buccaneers' top receiver, even over Mike Evans. With 2023 offensive coordinator Dave Canales gone, there's a chance Godwin returns to his 2022 form, where he caught 104 passes in 15 games. In PPR leagues, Godwin has a lot of upside.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
It blows my mind that someone like Evan Engram, who finished top-five at the tight end position a year ago, is going as a low-end TE1 in 2024. He is a reception machine, and he's going up against the Miami Dolphins, who were one of only eight teams to surrender 5.5 receptions per game or more to tight ends a season ago? Sign me up.
The argument against Engram is that his situation is different. Brian Thomas was drafted in the first round, and he'll surely take some of Engram's targets away. Will he? He'll take some, sure, but more than Calvin Ridley took away last year? Even if Engram finishes this year with only 80% of his targets from 2023, he'd still record 114 targets, which would've ranked fifth in targets among tight ends last season.
Players to sit in Week 1
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
The Jets have a very good secondary. That alone would pump the brakes on anyone considering starting Purdy in Week 1. But when you throw in the fact there's a chance Trent Williams doesn't participate in the team's Week 1 contest, you start really questioning Purdy's viability.
The loss of Williams would actually be a massive loss for Purdy. Purdy not only is 0-2 in starts made without Williams at left tackle, but also threw only two touchdowns and four interceptions in the two games Williams missed last year. Against a very good Jets secondary, Purdy could start the 2024-25 season on a very bad foot without Williams protecting his blind side.
RB Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
The New England Patriots, as bad as they are, still have a somewhat solid defense. In 2023, they were insanely stout against the run, allowing only 3.3 yards per carry, the best mark in the league. Moss might be the Bengals' lead back, but he's not a pass-catcher, failing to achieve even two receptions per game in a single season his entire career. If Moss is going to be valuable against New England, it will likely be through sheer volume or through the air.
Moss' backup, Chase Brown, averaged 14.4 yards per reception on screens last season. Brown may not get the rushing work on early downs, but he could get some good looks in the passing game, and was effective as a pass-catcher in his rookie season. If Moss doesn't get those opportunities, he'll struggle in Week 1.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
Hopkins hasn't practiced in a month due to a knee sprain. He's also 32 years old. While Hopkins did salvage his 2023 season after Will Levis became the team's starting quarterback, he's just not in a good position to start the regular season. After Week 1, assuming he doesn't face any more setbacks, he'll be fine. But Week 1 against Jaylon Johnson and the Chicago Bears? I wouldn't feel too great about that.
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TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys
In 2023, there was only one team that allowed fewer than 3.8 receptions per game to opposing tight ends: the Cleveland Browns. They were also the only team to surrender fewer than 40 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
There is a bright side here, and that is that opposing tight ends were still able to find the end zone relatively easily against Cleveland. And Ferguson got the most red zone targets of any tight end in the NFL last year. That said, everyone knows where Dallas' biggest flaws lie.
Their backfield is atrocious, and Cleveland's plan of action should be to force Dallas to run the ball as much as possible, even at the goal line. Ferguson will likely be a touchdown dependent option in Week 1, and Cleveland should know not to give Dallas many good looks through the air. That spells bad combo.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy football Week 1: 8 NFL players to start or sit
